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Council Study Session Minutes—July 12, 2010
At 7:30 p.m. Mayor Maxwell called the regularly scheduled Anacortes City Council study session of
July 12, 2010 to order. Councilors Erica Pickett, Brad Adams, Bill Turner, and Cynthia Richardson were
present. Kevin McKeown, Nick Petrish, and Brian Geer were absent.
Review 2011-2016 Capital Facilities Plan (CFP) New Projects
Mayor Maxwell stated that Anacortes is one of the few cities in the state that updates its CFP every year.
He clarified that not all CFP projects are funded but having projects listed in the plan makes them eligible
to apply for grant funding. Finance Director Steve Hoglund announced that the CFP is in compliance with
the Growth Management Act per RCW 36.70A.070. Noting that the plan is a rolling six-year projection,
Mr. Hoglund reviewed the 43 items that are proposed to be added to the 2011-2016 plan. Descriptions of
these items had been distributed as part of the Council packet prior to the meeting. Regarding the
museum workshop/storage building (CFP No. M001), Mrs. Richardson asked if the Historic Preservation
Board would review the design since the building would be constructed adjacent to a historic landmark.
Mayor Maxwell said yes. Mrs. Richardson clarified the typical order of design and permitting for the
Washington Park Day Use Improvements (CFP No. WP-11). Regarding the Fidalgo Bay Estates
generator set (CFP No. WTP-709), Mr. Turner asked if a backup generator was required by the County
when the project was constructed. Mayor Maxwell said no. Mr. Hoglund added that the cost for this
project would have to be recouped privately. Mrs. Richardson asked why the several WTP intake projects
aren't wrapped into the major upcoming water treatment plant project. Mr. Hoglund said these are part of
the separate intake structure that is across the river from the treatment plant. Regarding the doors for the
dewatering facility (CFP No. SW-705), Mrs. Richardson pointed out that the funding and expense dates
need to be realigned. Mr. Hoglund noted that all ten items added to the plan as part of Equipment Rental
are replacements of existing vehicles and that funds accrue ahead of time for those replacements. Mrs.
Pickett observed that the lawn mowers may need to be replaced sooner than scheduled. Mr. Hoglund
said they can be budgeted for earlier years if required. In conclusion, Mr. Hoglund reported that both the
public hearing and ordinance adoption for the 2011-2016 Capital Facilities Plan are scheduled for the
July 19, 2010 regular City Council meeting but Council may alter that schedule depending on public input.
Climate Change Presentation
Mayor Maxwell asked Mr. Turner to introduce the presenters. Mr. Turner prefaced the presentation by
stating that government decision makers need to plan for the future including impacts of climate change.
He introduced Dr. Jon Riedel from the National Park Service, Lara Whitely Binder from the University of
Washington Climate Impacts Group and Ed Knight, Senior Planner for the Swinomish Tribe.
Jon Riedel, geologist at North Cascades National Park (360-854-7330,jon_riedel@nps.gov,
www.nps.gov/noca/naturescience/glacial-mass-balance1.htm), discussed glacial evidence of past climate
change. He said 394 different glaciers feed the Skagit River watershed. He explained that glaciers are
influenced by both winter and summer weather, including temperature and precipitation, hence are good
indicators of climate change besides being tremendous sources of fresh water. Differentiating between
weather and climate, Dr. Riedel said the climate is warming rapidly in Skagit Valley which is counter to
long term cooling trends. He reviewed how cycles of the sun's orbit and the earth's tilt both affect long
term climate change, noting that both the tilt and orbit cycles indicate the earth should be heading into a
cooler and cooler climate. Dr. Riedel explained how sunspot cycles also affect climate including the little
ice age in the 1600s. He reported that since 1900 the expected cooling trend has reversed very rapidly.
Dr. Riedel then described his research which looked at glacier data to determine what the temperature
was in Skagit Valley at points in the past. On Mt. Baker, receding glaciers are exposing areas that haven't
been ice free for thousands of years. A ten-meter, 16,000-year core sample from the bottom of Little Twin
Lake near Winthrop was used to corroborate the glacial data. Vegetation samples found in moraines at
the Easton glacier indicated a series of glacial advances and retreats with vegetated periods during the
warmer years. One layer of forest material was carbon dated at about 5,300 years old, another was dated
at 400 years old which was the last major advance of the Easton glacier. He described a similar pattern in
the Deming glacier where five different buried forest layers were found. Comparing this data to the core
sample from Little Twin Lake Dr. Riedel found that the warmer periods in the core sample (marked by
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higher carbon concentration) correspond to the forest deposits in the glacial moraines. He added that the
glacial advances got bigger and bigger each time, indicating longer periods of colder weather. All 19
glaciers he studied in the North Cascades reached their maximum extent in the last few hundred years.
Research in the southern hemisphere shows the opposite pattern as would be expected if the earth's tilt
was responsible for historic climate change. However, in the 20t"century the rapid retreat of glaciers
worldwide has been well documented. Since the early 1990s Dr. Riedel's team has been measuring how
much ice is added to four local glaciers each winter and then how much is lost in the summer (the "mass
balance"). Trends have showed consistent losses since 2002 and tremendous cumulative losses in the
past seventeen years. He concluded that glaciers provide 8-12%of the summer runoff into the Skagit
River and that a huge volume of water has flowed into the sea over the past 17 years but has not been
replaced in the glaciers.
Lara Whitely Binder, Outreach Specialist at the Climate Impacts group of the University of Washington
Center for Science in the Earth System (206-616-5349, Iwb123@u.washington.edu,
cses.washington.edu/cig/) described the Group as an integrated research team studying impacts of
climate change and climate variability on the Pacific northwest. Their goal is to help local communities
plan for climate change and become more resilient. Ms. Whitely Binder pointed out that the northwest
ecosystem and economy is sensitive to climate change and even to extreme weather patterns. She said
the PNW climate has changed in the past 100 years and change appears to be accelerating with
increasing average annual temperatures over time in both urban and rural areas beyond the effect of
urban heat islands. Looking forward, globally temperature is expected to increase to varying degrees
depending on assumptions about population, greenhouse gas emissions, and so on. She underscored
that the challenges come from the rapid pace of average annual temperature change, not from change
per se. She also noted that even the most conservative assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions
still indicate accelerating temperature increases over both the short and long term. In the PNW warmer,
wetter winters and hotter, drier summers are projected. Water supplies, water quality, instream flows,
flood risk, hydroelectric supplies, public health, food production, and the agricultural, forest and timber
economies will all be affected by climate change. Loss of April 1 snow pack is a huge indicator for water
supplies. Snow packs are declining and this trend is expected to continue. Seasonal stream flows will be
affected by this. Usually there are two peaks, one in the fall from rainfall and one in the spring from snow
melt. With warmer temperatures, that pattern changes because there is more rain rather than snow in the
winter so the spring peak shifts back into winter rather than in summer when water is most needed. This
affects flood management, salmon management, hydropower production, water quality, etc. She also
noted flood frequency and magnitude will change. What was once a 100-year flood event will become
more common, potentially a 40-year event by 2020 or a ten-year event by 2080. Summer low flow
(drought) will also become more common. Communities will have to respond to these changes in both
normal and extreme stream flows. Water temperature increases will affect aquatic life forms including
salmon. At the same time, rising sea levels will affect coastal communities. The UW estimates a sea level
increase of 13 inches by 2100 but it could be more. Storm events combined with rising sea levels will
cause more frequent and more severe coastal flooding. Ocean acidification is also occurring as oceans
absorb CO2 which affects shell forming organisms that are critical in the food web; this is already affecting
the Washington State shellfish industry. Ms. Whitely Binder emphasized that local governments are on
the front lines of dealing with climate impacts because issues such as water supply and shoreline erosion
are managed and responded to locally. How can communities most effectively respond? She said
mitigating (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) has been the focus of global efforts but won't prevent the
impacts already projected so communities need to plan for and adapt to climate changes with
infrastructure upgrades among other things. At the state level, advisory groups on biodiversity, working
lands, infrastructure and other topics are meeting and will present recommendations to the legislature at
the end of 2011. Locally the Skagit Climate Consortium is coordinating climate research in the Skagit
basin and is applying for NSF funding to perform an integrated climate impacts assessment. Ms. Whitely
Binder concluded that the future will be unpredictable and trends are not necessarily linear but
communities must prepare to adapt and respond as climate conditions develop.
Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner for the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (360-466-7304,
eknight@swinomish-nsn.gov, www.swinomish-nsn.gov/) spoke about the Tribe's preparations to respond
and adapt at the local level to effects of climate change predicted by the scientists. Mr. Knight observed
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that sea level rise will particularly affect island and coastal communities. Dikes and berms may be
breached, roadways blocked or washed away, other infrastructure as well as businesses and residences
damaged. Storm surge events will become more severe and more frequent. The Swinomish undertook a
two-year$400K project to focus on local adaptation to the impacts of climate change. The first year
(2008-2009) produced an impact assessment technical report (available on line at www.swinomish-
nsn.gov/departments/planning/climate_change/Docs/). This second year is being spent developing an
action plan which is due this fall. The technical report looked at a broad range of sectors, mapped risk
zones, inventoried at risk assets and resources, assessed vulnerability, and performed risk analysis. The
action plan will evaluate strategies to respond. Sea level rise is a key issue as it may eventually top the
dikes. The study mapped the risk zones that could be affected by sea level rise as well as by storm
surges at higher sea levels. Both main access points to the reservation could be under water and many
structures, transportation links, economic development lands, marine and port facilities would all be
affected. Beyond the reservation, how would Fidalgo and Whidbey Islands be accessed?The Swinomish
have begun preliminary planning discussions with neighbors including the City of Anacortes. Aside from
sea level, the study looked at the mix of forest lands and development on the reservation and the
resulting potential for devastating wildfire; it determined that most structures on the reservation would be
at risk should such an event occur. The study is also considering river flows and water supply patterns,
saltwater intrusion, forest habitat conversion, species extinction, forest pest and disease vector changes
and other potential impacts. The tribe is looking forward to working with neighboring jurisdictions to plan
ahead to address these issues.
Mr. Turner concluded the session by noting that the City of Anacortes is and has been looking at these
sorts of issues and planning ahead in areas such as the water treatment plant design but noted the public
needs to understand the vital need for such planning. Mayor Maxwell thanked the presenters and invited
them to entertain questions from audience members after the session.
There being no further business, at approximately 9:15 p.m. Mayor Maxwell adjourned the regularly
scheduled study session of July 12, 2010.
Anacortes City Council Study Session Minutes July 12, 2010 3